Monitoring spatial variability and trends of wheat grain yield over the main cereal regions in Morocco: a remote-based tool for planning and adjusting policies

Changes in crop yields may have important implications for food security in Morocco. This study intends to develop an explicit model based solely on phenological parameters derived from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/NDVI data to monitor wheat grain yield. The developed model allows overcoming missing weather, soil and irrigation supply data without losing the spatial resolution offered by images data. The study period covers a 16-year span between 2000 and 2016, and the considered region is the north-western of Morocco. The model showed a good correlation with ground measurements (R-2 = 0.62; p < 0.01). Spatio-temporal variability and trend of wheat yield were examined. The spatial analyses revealed an increase of instability of wheat grain yields across central and southern regions. Such a tool allows managers and policy makers to analyse the agricultural policy impact, to monitor the agronomic potential dynamic, to control the cropping season evolution and to optimize the land use choices.

Automated summary

This study developed a model based on MODIS/NDVI data to monitor wheat grain yield in Morocco with good correlation. The research found an increase in instability of wheat grain yields in central and southern regions.