Journal
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
Volume 10, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60762-4
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Funding
- NOAA Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division via the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center [NA11NMF4320128]
- Honolulu Board of Water Supply [C16545003]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program
- SOEST from NOAA Office of Sea Grant, Department of Commerce [NA18OAR4170076]
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Sea-level rise (SLR) induced flooding is often envisioned as solely originating from a direct marine source. This results in alternate sources such as groundwater inundation and storm-drain backflow being overlooked in studies that inform planning. Here a method is developed that identifies flooding extents and infrastructure vulnerabilities that are likely to result from alternate flood sources over coming decades. The method includes simulation of flood scenarios consisting of high-resolution raster datasets featuring flood-water depth generated by three mechanisms: (1) direct marine flooding, (2) storm-drain backflow, and (3) groundwater inundation. We apply the method to Honolulu's primary urban center based on its high density of vulnerable assets and present-day tidal flooding issues. Annual exceedance frequencies of simulated flood thresholds are established using a statistical model that considers predicted tide and projections of SLR. Through assessment of multi-mechanism flooding, we find that approaching decades will likely feature large and increasing percentages of flooded area impacted simultaneously by the three flood mechanisms, in which groundwater inundation and direct marine flooding represent the most and least substantial single-mechanism flood source, respectively. These results illustrate the need to reevaluate main sources of SLR induced flooding to promote the development of effective flood management strategies.
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