Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 11, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13899-4
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Funding
- NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Program [NNX16AC98G, NNX16AC96G, NNX16AC97G]
- NASA
- Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS, UK) [1028/06/2015, 1537/06/2018]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA) [RA-133-R15-CN-0008]
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology
- CSIRO
- Australian Department of the Environment and Energy (DoEE)
- Refrigerant Reclaim Australia (RRA)
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/I021365/1]
- NERC [NE/L013088/1, NE/K002236/1, NE/I021365/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF2). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 +/- 0.9 Gg yr(-1)). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional similar to 309 Tg CO2-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.
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