The stability of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecosystem to climate change

Climate change and simultaneous increases in extreme events have significant impacts on the structure and function of the global ecosystem. The response of the ecosystem on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) to climate change has drawn increasing attention for its prominent elevation. In this study, resistance and resilience were selected as two stability indicators of ecosystems to analyze the response of the QTP ecosystem to climate change over the past 34 years. We explored the main climate drivers that affect vegetation change, and predicted the stability of the ecosystem in the future. The results showed that the coniferous and Hylaea coniferous and hylaea forests of the QTP had high resilience, whereas the steppe and meadow had poor resilience. Shrubs and coniferous and hylaea coniferous and hylaea forests were with less resistance to climate change, whereas steppe and meadow showed more resistance to climate change. Temperature (TEMP) was the driving factor that affected the stability of steppe and meadow; however, precipitation (PRE) had a greater impact on stability of coniferous and hylaea forests and shrubs. Based on the CMIP5 results, TEMP and PRE on the QTP will significantly increase (p < 0.01) in the next 85 years, and 50.48% of the QTP will become more suitable for vegetation growth, mainly distributing in the southern meadow, part of the Hylaea, and areas bordering the southeastern coniferous and hylaea forests and shrubs. However, the ecosystem degradation might occurr in the central and eastern meadow regions.