Journal
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH
Volume 46, Issue 2, Pages 234-248Publisher
CANADIAN SCIENCE PUBLISHING, NRC RESEARCH PRESS
DOI: 10.1139/cjfr-2015-0289
Keywords
multistage stochastic programming; wildfire growth; wildfire suppression; uncertain fire weather
Categories
Funding
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station [11-JV-11221636-146]
- Colorado State University [11-JV-11221636-146]
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Wildfire behavior is a complex and stochastic phenomenon that can present unique tactical management challenges. This paper investigates a multistage stochastic mixed integer program with full recourse to model spatially explicit fire behavior and to select suppression locations for a wildland fire. Simplified suppression decisions take the form of suppression nodes, which are placed on a raster landscape for multiple decision stages. Weather scenarios are used to represent a distribution of probable changes in fire behavior in response to random weather changes, modeled using probabilistic weather trees. Multistage suppression decisions and fire behavior respond to these weather events and to each other. Nonanticipativity constraints ensure that suppression decisions account for uncertainty in weather forecasts. Test cases for this model provide examples of fire behavior interacting with suppression to achieve a minimum expected area impacted by fire and suppression.
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