The cartilage degradation marker, urinary CTX-II, is associated with the risk of incident total joint replacement in postmenopausal women. A 18 year evaluation of the OFELY prospective cohort

Objective: Identifying objective risk-indicators for total joint replacement (TJR) is useful to enrich population at high risk in OA clinical trials. We investigate the association of urinary CTX-II, a biochemical marker of cartilage breakdown, with the risk of TJR. Method: 478 postmenopausal women (mean age 65.5 +/- 7.5 yr) from the OFELY cohort were studied. CTX-II, serum CTX-I (bone resorption) and PINP (bone formation), were measured at baseline. Association between CTX-II and incidence of TJR was assessed by Cox Hazard Regression. Results: During a median (95% CI) 17.8 (15.0-18.1) years follow-up, 38 women sustained a TJR, including hip (n = 29) or knee (n = 9) replacement. CTX-II -but not CTX-I or PINP- was higher in patients with TJR (+34%, P = 0.001 vs women with no TJR). Increased baseline CTX-II levels were associated with a higher risk of TJR with a Hazard Ratio (HR) (95 CI) of 1.45 (1.13-1.85) per 1 SD increase after adjustment for age, BMI and total hip BMD. CTX-II remained significantly associated with the risk of TJR after further adjustment for total WOMAC, prevalent knee OA (KL >= 2) and self-reported hip OA [HR (95 CI): 1.31 (1.01-1.71), P = 0,04]. When women were categorized as low and high CTX-II (lower and above the 95 percentile of healthy premenopausal women, respectively), subjects with high levels had an age-BMI-hip BMD adjusted HR (95 CI) of 3.00 (1.54-5.85) compared to women with low levels which remained significant after further adjustment for WOMAC, knee and/or hip OA [HR (95 CI): 2.45 (1.25-4.89), P = 0.01]. Conclusion: CTX-II is an independent risk indicator of TJR in postmenopausal women suggesting that it may be useful to identify subjects at high risk of TJR. (C) 2020 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.