Deepwater Horizon Oil could have naturally reached Texas beaches

Following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) spill, oil residues were found in all five Gulf states of the United States (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida). However, only a small amount was found in Texas, leading to speculation that it may have arrived there via ship through bilge water instead of naturally via currents. We report on a numerical modeling effort to simulate surface drifters during and after the DWH spill to demonstrate that surface water parcels - and therefore oil carried by those parcels - could reasonably have reached Texas waters at the appropriate time and location from known oiled locations without human interference. We additionally give context for the conditions in 2010 through a study of summer connectivity with the Galveston Bay coastline, which shows that in some years oil from the DWH pipe likely would not have reached Texas.