Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation

As the largest mode in China's transportation industry, road transportation is the vital part to achieve a goal of congestion and emissions reduction. We analyzed the future development of energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with road transportation. First, a Bayesian structural equation model (BSEM) was developed to explore the internal relations of total demand, structure, and technology as factors impacting the road transportation system. Second, the core influence factors were screened using path analysis. Finally, a scenario analysis model was established to analyze potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction under different conditions. The results show that total demand has the largest direct effect among all influencing factors; however, if we consider indirect influences arising from interactions between latent variables, then traffic structure becomes the most important factor with a combined impact coefficient of -1.63. The respective potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction of road transportation are projected to be approximately 65,237.61 ktoe (37.33% rate) and 41 million tons (8.38%) during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020) and reach approximately 91,923.63 ktoe (51.67%) and 68 million tons (12.66%) by 2025. Our results imply that to achieve China's energy conservation and emissions reduction goals, quantity and structure should be emphasized in the short term, whereas technology is critical over the long term. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.