Comparative analysis of spatial variation in forest fire drivers between boreal and subtropical ecosystems in China

Drivers of forest fire are complex and may spatially vary between different ecosystems; thus their identification is critical for the development of effective fire management strategies. Here we identified the spatial distribution trend and drivers of forest fire over the period of 2000-2016 in the boreal and subtropical forest ecosystems in China using trend analysis and the geographically weighted negative binomial regression model (GWNBR). The results reveal that forest fires were generally shifting from the boreal to sub-tropical region and that there were significant (p < 0.05) spatial differences in fire drivers between boreal and subtropical forest ecosystems. Forest fires in the boreal ecosystem were driven by meteorological, topographic and human factors that had clear spatial variation. In contrast, forest fire occurrence in subtropical forest ecosystem was spatially stationary; i.e., constant throughout the area. Our results suggest that as socio-economy continues developing, the influence of human factors on forest fires in different ecosystems will be more complex. Future national forest fire management policies should consider local condition to establish region-specific management strategies due to significant spatial differences in major forest fire drivers between different ecosystems.