Large-scale pasture restoration may not be the best option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil

Cattle ranching accounts for 44% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land use sector in Brazil. In response, Brazil has proposed a massive pasture restoration program that aspires to make ranching more competitive while at the same time reducing associated GHG emissions. Pasture restoration, however, is only one of several intensification options that could be employed to achieve these goals. Here we analyze potential production, economic return and GHG emissions from an intensification strategy based mainly on pasture restoration and compare its productive, economic and GHG emissions performances with intensification options more focused on supplemental feeding (grain-feed supplementation of grazing animals and animal finishing in feedlots). To this end, we developed a multi-sectoral, deterministic simulation model of the ranching system and applied it to Mato Grosso state, the largest producer and earliest adopter of intensive production. To account for GHG emissions, we performed a life cycle analysis of a complete beef production cycle. Our results show that an intensification strategy focused more heavily on pasture restoration does reduce GHG emissions but produces the least favorable economic and GHG emissions outcomes when compared with a range of supplemental feeding alternatives. In view of these results, Brazil should seek a more diversified strategies for cattle intensification in its climate mitigation policy.