Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
Volume 124, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104607
Keywords
Landslide prediction; Hydrological model; Infinite slope model; Scaling
Categories
Funding
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFC1508101, 2016YFC0402701]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51879067]
- Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province [BK20180022]
- Six Talent Peaks Project in Jiangsu Province [NY-004]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China [2018B42914, 2018B04714]
- China Scholarship Council [201806710078]
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Rainfall-triggered shallow landslides are widespread natural hazards around the world, causing many damages to human lives and property. In this study, we focused on predicting landslides in a large region by coupling a 1 km-resolution hydrological model and a 90 m-resolution slope stability model, where a downscaling method for soil moisture via topographic wetness index was applied. The modeled hydrological processes show generally good agreements with the observed discharges: relative biases and correlation coefficients at three validation stations are all <20% and >0.60, respectively. The derived scaling law for soil moisture allows for near-conservative downscaling of the original 1-km soil moisture to 90-m resolution for slope stability assessment. For landslide prediction, the global accuracy and true positive rate are 97.2% and 66.9%, respectively. This study provides an effective and computationally efficient coupling method to predict landslides over large regions in which fine-scale topographical information is incorporated.
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