Resilient design of biomass to energy system considering uncertainty in biomass supply

An optimization model is proposed for the biomass to energy system design considering disruption in biomass supply. The supply chain consists of farms, Regional Biomass Pre-processing Depots (RBPD), and biorefineries. The disruption, in the form of drought, has spatially varying disruption probability and level of actual disruption. Shortfall in fuel production and short term procurement of feedstock incurs penalty. Mass balance equations constitute the constraints. Decision variables include design decision (biorefinery and RBPD locations and capacities) and operational decisions (feedstock flows). The objective function is the minimization of the probability-weighted sum of ideal and disrupted scenario costs. The results, for a case study with 443 farms, 16 potential RBPDs, and 5 potential biorefinery locations, are compared with a model that ignored disruption. The results show up to 7.6% reduction in the actual cost with the proposed model. Disruption consideration changes RBPD locations and capacities as well as the procurement strategies. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.