Journal
BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
Volume 82, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-019-00681-2
Keywords
Invasion reproductive number; Copersistence; Zika; Dengue
Categories
Funding
- National Science Foundation
- National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program [1746052]
- Division Of Graduate Education
- Direct For Education and Human Resources [1746052] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Although dengue and Zika cocirculation has increased within the past 5 years, very little is known about its epidemiological consequences. To investigate the effect of dengue and Zika cocirculation on the spread of both pathogens, we create a deterministic dengue and Zika coinfection model, the first to incorporate altered infectivity of mosquitoes (due to coinfection). The model also addresses increased infectivity due to antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) within the human population. Central to our analysis is the derivation and interpretation of the basic reproductive number and invasion reproductive number of both pathogens. In addition, we investigate how model parameters impact the persistence of each disease. Our results identify threshold conditions under which one disease facilitates the spread of the other and show that ADE has a greater impact on disease persistence than altered vector infectivity. This work highlights the importance of ADE and illustrates that while the endemic presence of dengue facilitates the spread of Zika, it is possible for high Zika prevalence to prevent the establishment of dengue.
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