Modeling the yield spatial distribution based on the basic production factors under uncertainty conditions in Kamin, Iran

Determining the proper amounts of basic production factors to achieve the acceptable yield is so important to reach the agriculture sustainability. Yield spatial distribution are influenced by factors like water, soil, and economy which themselves are influenced by climate changes that all are under the farmer management effect. The basic production factors were studied in this research, and a method was introduced to show the vague factors' role in yield. First, some models were prepared to simulate the yield spatial distribution of product based on the basic production factors. Then, the relationship among factors was reevaluated by Anfis method to identify the role of farmer management (as a vague variable). The fuzzy geostatistical (FGS) model was obtained by the combination of Anfis method and geostatistical methods. Results of simulating the relationship between the basic factors of production and yield using geostatistical methods showed that several yield classes are not separable from these factors, while the correlation coefficient between the measured yield values and the values obtained from these models in the calibration steps and the validity of the results were acceptable. The correlation coefficients between the measured and estimated yield values were in the range of 0.48 to 0.84 and in the model validation process of 0.27. The FGS model showed the best correlation coefficient and could zonate yield spatial distribution well.