Delineation of Urban Growth Boundaries with SD and CLUE-s Models under Multi-Scenarios in Chengdu Metropolitan Area

For megacities experiencing rapid urbanization in China, urban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been considered as a useful means to control urban sprawl and to promote sustainable urban development. However, scientific methods and tools to delineate sound UGBs by planners are few and far between. Using metropolitan Chengdu as the study area, this paper applies the system dynamics (SD) and conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent (CLUE-s) models to delineate UGBs. In this study, land use demand was simulated in the SD model temporally at a macro-level and allocated in the CLUE-s model spatially at a micro-level. Key social-economic elements and spatial pattern factors were used in the simulation process for the period of 2013-2030. The simulation results under various scenarios showed that areas along the major corridors and belt roads of the main Chengdu metropolitan area and its satellite towns have higher chances to be developed. The areas most likely to be developed were used to establish the UGBs for 2020, 2025, and 2030. This research demonstrates that the integrated framework of SD and CLUE-s models provides a feasible means of UGB delineation under different development scenarios.