Empirical Comparison of Tropical Maize Hybrids Selected Through Genomic and Phenotypic Selections

Genomic selection predicts the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of individuals not previously phenotyped. Several studies have investigated the accuracy of genomic predictions in maize but there is little empirical evidence on the practical performance of lines selected based on phenotype in comparison with those selected solely on GEBVs in advanced testcross yield trials. The main objectives of this study were to (1) empirically compare the performance of tropical maize hybrids selected through phenotypic selection (PS) and genomic selection (GS) under well-watered (WW) and managed drought stress (WS) conditions in Kenya, and (2) compare the cost-benefit analysis of GS and PS. For this study, we used two experimental maize data sets (stage I and stage II yield trials). The stage I data set consisted of 1492 doubled haploid (DH) lines genotyped with rAmpSeq SNPs. A subset of these lines (855) representing various DH populations within the stage I cohort was crossed with an individual single-cross tester chosen to complement each population. These testcross hybrids were evaluated in replicated trials under WW and WS conditions for grain yield and other agronomic traits, while the remaining 637 DH lines were predicted using the 855 lines as a training set. The second data set (stage II) consists of 348 DH lines from the first data set. Among these 348 best DH lines, 172 lines selected were solely based on GEBVs, and 176 lines were selected based on phenotypic performance. Each of the 348 DH lines were crossed with three common testers from complementary heterotic groups, and the resulting 1042 testcross hybrids and six commercial checks were evaluated in four to five WW locations and one WS condition in Kenya. For stage I trials, the cross-validated prediction accuracy for grain yield was 0.67 and 0.65 under WW and WS conditions, respectively. We found similar responses to selection using PS and GS for grain yield other agronomic traits under WW and WS conditions. The top 15% of hybrids advanced through GS and PS gave 21%-23% higher grain yield under WW and 51%-52% more grain yield under WS than the mean of the checks. The GS reduced the cost by 32% over the PS with similar selection gains. We concluded that the use of GS for yield under WW and WS conditions in maize can produce selection candidates with similar performance as those generated from conventional PS, but at a lower cost, and therefore, should be incorporated into maize breeding pipelines to increase breeding program efficiency.