The semi-centennial timescale dynamic assessment on carbon emission trajectory determinants for Hebei Province within the New Normal pattern shock

New normal development pattern has already been experiencing in China since the rate of economics slowing down recent years. This new development circumstance requires targeted and adapted policy instruments as well as mitigation measures to facilitate to achieve carbon emission peak around 2030. In the context of the new normal pattern, its advancement effectiveness that boosting on carbon emission trajectory is calculated by three combination models over a semi-centennial time scales ranging from 1985 to 2035 in this study. Hebei province is estimated as the empirical case for exploring the concrete response due to its critical status. Carbon emission trajectory is revealed from both historical and future perspectives. Historical trajectory reflects the changing trend of carbon emission over time spans since 1985 and before which new normal pattern occurred. On the converse, future trajectory projects the vary orientation of carbon emission between the period around new normal occurred and up to 2035. The carbon emission trajectory is separated into historical trajectory and future trajectory taking the initial time of the New Normal period as the dividing boundary. The results show that, the peaking time for Hebei province would be appeared at 2022, 2024, and 2026 with the peaking level of 226.78, 238.22, and 250.95 million tons, respectively. A lower increasing rate of 7% for GDP, a gradually decreasing proportion of the secondary industry ranging from 44.99% by 2020 to 37.9% by 2030, and a moderate growing magnitude for energy consumption restrained beyond 371.15 Mtce towards 2030 is identified as the optimal pathway for reaching carbon emission peak. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.