Uncertainty in chemical process systems engineering: a critical review

Uncertainty or error occurs as a result of a lack or misuse of knowledge about specific topics or situations. In this review, we recall the differences between error and uncertainty briefly, first, and then their probable sources. Then, their identifications and management in chemical process design, optimization, control, and fault detection and diagnosis are illustrated. Furthermore, because of the large amount of information that can be obtained in modern plants, accurate analysis and evaluation of those pieces of information have undeniable effects on the uncertainty in the system. Moreover, the origins of uncertainty and error in simulation and modeling are also presented. We show that in a multidisciplinary modeling approach, every single step can be a potential source of uncertainty, which can merge into each other and generate unreliable results. In addition, some uncertainty analysis and evaluation methods are briefly presented. Finally, guidelines for future research are proposed based on existing research gaps, which we believe will pave the way to innovative process designs based on more reliable, efficient, and feasible optimum planning.

Automated summary

This review delves into the origins of uncertainty and error in chemical process design, highlighting the importance of accurate analysis and evaluation of information in modern plants. It emphasizes that in a multidisciplinary modeling approach, each step can potentially introduce uncertainty, leading to unreliable results. Additionally, the review briefly presents some uncertainty analysis and evaluation methods, and proposes future research guidelines based on existing research gaps.