Genomic prediction of grain yield in contrasting environments for white lupin genetic resources

Germplasm collections hold several thousands of white lupin (Lupinus albus L.) accessions. Genome-enabled models with good predictive ability for specific environments could provide a cost-efficient means to identify promising genetic resources for breeding programmes. This study provided an unprecedented assessment of genome-enabled predictions for white lupin grain yield, focusing on (i) a world collection of 109 landraces and 8 varieties phenotyped in three European sites with contrasting climate (Mediterranean, subcontinental or oceanic) and sowing time (data set 1); (ii) 78 geographically diversified landrace genotypes and three variety genotypes phenotyped in moisture-favourable and severely drought-prone managed environments (data set 2). The interest of predictions for individual genotypes was justified by large within-landrace variation for yield responses. Ridge regression BLUP (rrBLUP) and Bayesian Lasso (BL) models exploited allele frequencies (estimated from 3 to 4 genotypes per landrace) of 10,782 polymorphic SNPs for data set 1, and allele values of 9937 polymorphic SNPs for data set 2, following ApeKI-based genotyping-by-sequencing characterization. Compared with BL, rrBLUP displayed similar predictive ability for data set 1 and better predictive ability for data set 2. Best-predictive models displayed intra-environment predictive ability for the five test environments in the range 0.47-0.76. Cross-environment predictions between pairs of environments with positive genetic correlation, i.e., autumn-sown subcontinental vs Mediterranean sites, and moisture-favourable vs drought-prone environments, exhibited a predictive ability range of 0.40-0.51 and a predictive accuracy range of 0.48-0.61. Our results support the exploitation of genomic predictions and provide economic justification for the genotyping of germplasm collections of white lupin.