Landscape transition in Mediterranean islands: The case of Ionian islands, Greece 1985-2015

Mediterranean islands are heterogeneous and dynamic landscapes resulting from complex interactions between natural and anthropogenic processes that contribute to their high blodiversity, and aesthetic and cultural value. Such islands are considered susceptible to environmental changes that, In combination with intense human activities, could harm local ecosystems and the supply of important goods and services. Thus, it is important to monitor changes to land use/land cover (LULC) to identify the underlying drivers for effective sustainable management. This study aimed to interpret the main LULC transitions over a 30-year period across the Ionian Islands in western Greece. Eleven socioeconomic and environmental variables were analyzed in relation to five main LULC transitions using global (GLM) and local (GWR) modeling approaches. LULC changes, which have a clear impact on the structure of the Ionian landscape, primarily occurred in the natural vegetation zone and the agricultural zone, while urbanization transition was limited. Each change was correlated with a specific combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors of varying magnitude within the island complexes. In particular, geomorphological, bioclimatic, and natural disaster variables were related to changes to the natural vegetation zone. In comparison, changes to the agricultural zone were linked with socioeconomic variables and specific environmental characteristics. In parallel, urbanization was mainly driven by increasing population size and increasing number of tourist accommodations, In conclusion, this study showed that the combined framework of geospatial analytics (statistical, spatial, and GIS) and remote sensing techniques constitute a useful tool for suggesting possible factors related to landscape change at both local and regional scales.