What drives parallel evolution? How population size and mutational variation contribute to repeated evolution

Parallel evolution is the repeated evolution of the same phenotype or genotype in evolutionarily independent populations. Here, we use evolve-and-resequence experiments with bacteria and yeast to dissect the drivers of parallel evolution at the gene level. A meta-analysis shows that parallel evolution is often rare, but there is a positive relationship between population size and the probability of parallelism. We present a modeling approach to estimate the contributions of mutational and selective heterogeneity across a genome to parallel evolution. We show that, for two experiments, mutation contributes between similar to 10 and 45%, respectively, of the variation associated with selection. Parallel evolution cannot, therefore, be interpreted as a phenomenon driven by selection alone; it must also incorporate information on heterogeneity in mutation rates along the genome. More broadly, the work discussed here helps lay the groundwork for a more sophisticated, empirically grounded theory of parallel evolution.