Robust decision making analysis of BECCS (bio-CLC) in a district heating and cooling grid

Additional investments to negative emission technologies, such as reforestation or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are required to achieve Paris Agreement targets. Chemical-looping combustion of biomass (Bio-CLC) is an under-the-development combustion technology that could provide relatively low cost negative CO2 emissions. We modelled Bio-CLC units as a part of a city-level district heating and cooling (DHC) grid based on literature and our experimental work with Bio-CLC pilot plants. We applied robust decision-making (RDM) to identify preconditions that favour Bio-CLC over certain competing investment options. In the selected case study, a Bio-CLC unit had a 50% chance to be profitable (10% Internal rate of return or better) around the level of 10 (sic)/tCO(2) net income from captured bio-CO2. If the net income from captured bio-CO2 was below 10 (sic)/tCO(2), as currently, large heat pumps with COP of 3.5 were the most robust of the studied investment options. Traditional bio-CHP performed better than large heat pumps only when electricity market price was above 50 (sic)/MWh and biomass price below 20 (sic)/MWh. Performed RDM analysis provides a systemic background for both technology developers and DHC operators when considering the competitiveness of the technology in an uncertain future.