The prediction of city expansion and land surface temperature in Bogor City, Indonesia

In recent year, rapid population growth and urban development were observed in Bogor City as a satellite city of Jakarta. In this study, we predicted the city expansion and land surface temperature (LST) in the future. Landsat images of 1997, 2007, and 2017 were used to detect the land use changes. Land use maps in 2007 and 2017 were used for land use prediction in 2027. Slope, distance from the roads, distance from the toll road, and elevation were also used as variables which influenced the land use change. The combination of Multi-Layer Perceptron and Markov Chain (MLP-MC) were applied to forecast the city expansion. We found that the urbanized area will expand by 3759.6 ha between 2017 and 2027. Based on the land use prediction of 2027, we predicted the future LST of 2027. The average LST of the analyzed area in 2027 increased compared to 2017. The future city expansion will increase the area with high LST. This study gives information to the city planners for making a comfortable and sustainable city.