The progression rate of peripheral arterial disease in patients with intermittent claudication: a systematic review

Background Intermittent claudication (IC) is the most common symptom of peripheral arterial disease and is generally treated conservatively due to limited prognostic evidence to support early revascularisation in the individual patient. This approach may lead to the possible loss of opportunity of early revascularisation in patients who are more likely to deteriorate to critical limb ischaemia. The aim of this review is to evaluate the available literature related to the progression rate of symptomatic peripheral arterial disease. Methods We conducted a systematic review of the literature in PubMed and MEDLINE, Cochrane library, Elsevier, Web of Science, CINAHL and Opengrey using relevant search terms to identify the progression rate of peripheral arterial disease in patients with claudication. Outcomes of interest were progression rate in terms of haemodynamic measurement and time to development of adverse outcomes. Two independent reviewers determined study eligibility and extracted descriptive, methodologic, and outcome data. Quality of evidence was evaluated using the Cochrane recommendations for assessing risk of bias and was reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Results Seven prospective cohort studies and one retrospective cohort study were identified and included in this review with the number of participants in each study ranging from 38 to 1244. Progression rate reports varied from a yearly decrease of 0.01 in ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI) to a yearly decrease ABPI of 0.014 in 21% of participants. Quality of evidence ranged from low to moderate mostly due to limited allocation concealment at recruitment and survival selection bias. Conclusions Progression of PAD in IC patients is probably underestimated in the literature due to study design issues. Predicting which patients with claudication are likely to deteriorate to critical limb ischaemia is difficult since there is a lack of evidence related to lower limb prognosis. Further research is required to enable early identification of patients at high risk of progressing to critical ischaemia and appropriate early revascularisation to reduce lower limb morbidity.