Assessing energy efficiency improvements, energy dependence, and CO2 emissions in the European Union using a decomposition method

The achievement of the 32.5% energy efficiency target set for 2030 in the Energy Efficiency Directive 2018/2002 could determine the success of the EU Member States' actions and policy measures to improve energy efficiency. However, the way the target was set presents several limitations, and the target is based on a hypothetical percentage of future primary energy use rather than absolute energy savings. Thus, the objectives of this study are to provide new insight into (i) the levels of energy efficiency improvements achieved by the EU over the period 1995-2015 by employing a decomposition analysis approach-Logarithm Mean Divisia Index-and using disaggregated final energy consumption data, (ii) the progress of the EU towards the energy efficiency target set for 2030, and (iii) the energy security and climate benefits associated with energy efficiency improvements. The results show that from 1995 to 2015, efficiency allowed the EU to save approximately 235 Mtoe of final energy. Additionally, energy efficiency improvements reduced the EU's dependence on energy imports at the average rate of 1% per year, saved 811 MtCO(2), and contributed to achieving 52.5% of the energy efficiency target set for 2030.