Simulating Episode-Based Bundled Payments for Cranial Neurosurgical Procedures

BACKGROUND: Episode-based bundled payments were introduced by Medicare in 2013 as the Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) in order to improve care coordination and cost efficiency. BPCI has not yet been applied to cranial neurosurgical procedures. OBJECTIVE: To determine projected values of episode-based bundled payments when applied to common cranial neurosurgical procedures using retrospective data from a large database. METHODS: We performed a large retrospective observational study using the MarketScan administrative database to project bundled payment payments for 4 groups of common cranial neurosurgical procedures. RESULTS: We identified 15 276 procedures that met our inclusion criteria. We observed significant variability between groups, with 90-d bundle projected payments ranging from $58,200 for craniotomy for meningioma to $102,073 for craniotomy for malignant glioma. We also found significant variability in projected bundled payments within each class of operation. On average, payment for the index hospitalization accounted for 85% of projected payments for a 30-d bundle and 70.5% of projected payments for a 90-d bundle. Multivariable analysis showed that hospital readmission, discharge to postacute care facilities, venous-thrombo-embolism, medical comorbidities, adjuvant therapies, and payer status significantly contributed to projected cranial bundle payments. CONCLUSION: For the first time, to our knowledge, we project the values of episode-based bundled payments for common vascular and tumor cranial operations. As previously identified in orthopedic procedures, there is significant variability in total bundle payments within each cranial procedure. Compared to spine and orthopedic procedures, postdischarge care significantly impacts total bundle payments in cranial neurosurgery.