Journal
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
Volume 226, Issue -, Pages 122-137Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.018
Keywords
Precipitation extremes; Projected changes; Uncertainty; ETCCDI; CMIP5; China
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51741903, 51879108]
- Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China [2018A030310653]
- Youth Innovative Talents Project for Guangdong Colleges and Universities [2017KQNCX010]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [21617301]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This study presented an analysis of projection and uncertainty of precipitation extremes over 9 river basins in China based on the outputs of 18 global climate models (GCMs) with 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The temporal and spatial changes in precipitation extremes for the period 2020-2100 were analyzed using the climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Uncertainty of GCMs and RCPs in the projections of precipitation extremes was quantified using the variance-based sensitivity analysis method. The model simulations generally predict a consistent intensification of precipitation extremes during the 21st century with respect to different RCPs scenarios: the higher emission scenarios (e.g., RCP8.5), the larger intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes. The projected changes in precipitation extremes exhibit a large spatial variation across China. The high-latitude and high elevation regions of China (e.g., Continental and Southwest basins) are projected to respond more strongly to the increase in precipitation amount and intensity (e.g., RCPTOT, RX1day and RX5day), while southeastern and southern China (e.g., Southeast and Pearl River basins) tend to be more sensitive to the increase in the frequency of precipitation extreme (e.g., R10mm and R20mm). Consecutive dry days (CDD) is projected to decrease in northern China (e.g., Continental basin) but increase in southern China (e.g., Southeast, Pearl River, and Yangtze River basins). Uncertainty analysis shows that variation of GCMs contributes > 90% uncertainty of precipitation extremes projections for the whole China, with larger uncertainty range under the higher emission scenarios (e.g., RCP8.5). The uncertainty from RCPs is generally limited (contribution < 10%) in comparison with GCMs, and slightly increases with the long-term projections of precipitation extremes.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available