Journal
SCIENCE ADVANCES
Volume 5, Issue 6, Pages -Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau0936
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Funding
- Tel-Aviv University
- Mintz Family Foundation
- Mediterranean Research Centre of Israel (MERCI)
- international virtual institute DESERVE (Dead Sea Research Venue)
- German Helmholtz Association
- Porter School of Environmental Studies at Tel-Aviv University
- Department of Meteorology of Stockholm University
- Swedish Research Council [2016-03724]
- Swedish Research Council [2016-03724] Funding Source: Swedish Research Council
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The atmosphere is a chaotic system displaying recurrent large-scale configurations. Recent developments in dynamical systems theory allow us to describe these configurations in terms of the local dimension-a proxy for the active number of degrees of freedom-and persistence in phase space, which can be interpreted as persistence in time. These properties provide information on the intrinsic predictability of an atmospheric state. Here, this technique is applied to atmospheric configurations in the eastern Mediterranean, grouped into synoptic classifications (SCs). It is shown that local dimension and persistence, derived from reanalysis and CMIP5 models' daily sea-level pressure fields, can serve as an extremely informative qualitative method for evaluating the predictability of the different SCs. These metrics, combined with the SC transitional probability approach, may be a valuable complement to operational weather forecasts and effective tools for climate model evaluation. This new perspective can be extended to other geographical regions.
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