Journal
BIOMETRIKA
Volume 102, Issue 2, Pages 325-343Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asu076
Keywords
Kullback Leibler divergence; Score function; Time-varying parameter
Funding
- Dutch National Science Foundation
- CREATES, Aarhus University, Denmark - Danish National Research Foundation
Ask authors/readers for more resources
We investigate information-theoretic optimality properties of the score function of the predictive likelihood as a device for updating a real-valued time-varying parameter in a univariate observation-driven model with continuous responses. We restrict our attention to models with updates of one lag order. The results provide theoretical justification for a class of score-driven models which includes the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model as a special case. Our main contribution is to show that only parameter updates based on the score will always reduce the local Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true conditional density and the model-implied conditional density. This result holds irrespective of the severity of model mis-specification. We also show that use of the score leads to a considerably smaller global Kullback-Leibler divergence in empirically relevant settings. We illustrate the theory with an application to time-varying volatility models. We show that the reduction in Kullback-Leibler divergence across a range of different settings can be substantial compared to updates based on, for example, squared lagged observations.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available