Journal
RISK ANALYSIS
Volume 39, Issue 12, Pages 2732-2743Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13371
Keywords
Mission abort; mission success probability; multiple attempts; rescue procedure; system loss probability
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51875089] Funding Source: Medline
- Government of the Russian Federation [08-08] Funding Source: Medline
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Many real-world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the mission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real-world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and the cost-related and the time-wise restrictions for this are not very severe. The probabilistic model for the multiattempt case is suggested and the tradeoff between the overall mission success probability (MSP) and a system loss probability is discussed. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated. For the considered illustrative example, a detailed sensitivity analysis is performed that shows specifically that even when the system's survival is not so important, mission aborting can be used to maximize the multiattempt MSP.
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