Fine-tuning blastocyst selection based on morphology: a multicentre analysis of 2461 single blastocyst transfers

Research question: Which blastocyst morphology parameter is associated with live birth after controlling for female age and endometrial receptivity? Design: Retrospective study including fresh single blastocyst transfers (n = 2461) where the value of serum progesterone on day of human chorionic gonadotrophin trigger (PdHCG) was available. Generalized estimating equation regression models evaluated the independent effects of developmental stage (DevSt), inner cell mass (ICM) and trophectoderm grade on live birth rates while controlling for the confounding effects of female age and PdHCG. Results: DevSt was strongly associated with the probability of live birth (P < 0.0001) independently of female age (odds ratio [OR] 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.91) and PdHCG (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.87). For full blastocysts, expanded blastocysts and hatching blastocysts, addition of ICM and trophectoderm grading in the multivariable analysis suggested that besides female age (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.94) and PdHCG (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73-0.87), only DevSt (P = 0.001) and trophectoderm quality (P = 0.004) were independent predictors of live birth, while the predictive capacity of ICM was no longer significant. The mean probability of live birth was highest for AA blastocysts (35.0%), followed by BA blastocysts (31.2%) and AB blastocysts (27.7%). Conclusion: This large study analyses for the first time the independent role of blastocyst morphology in predicting live birth while controlling for female age and PdHCG. Its findings suggest that DevSt and then trophectoderm grade are stronger predictors of live birth over ICM grade when selecting a single blastocyst for transfer.