Mid-upper arm circumference predicts death in adult patients admitted to a TB ward in the Philippines: A prospective cohort study

Background The Philippines is ranked 3rd globally for tuberculosis incidence (554/100,000 population). The tuberculosis ward at San Lazaro Hospital, Manila receives 1,800-2,000 admissions of acutely unwell patients per year with high mortality. Objectives of this prospective cohort study were to quantify the association of under-nutrition (primary) and diabetes (secondary) with inpatient mortality occurring between 3-28 days of hospital admission in patients with suspected or previously diagnosed TB. Methods and results We enrolled 360 adults (>= 18 years); 348 were eligible for the primary analysis (alive on day 3). Clinical, laboratory, anthropometric and enhanced tuberculosis diagnostic data were collected at admission with telephone tracing for mortality up to 6 months post-discharge. In the primary analysis population (mean age 45 years, SD = 15.0 years, 70% male), 58 (16.7%) deaths occurred between day 3-28 of admission; 70 (20.1%) between day 3 and discharge and documented total post-day 3 mortality including follow-up was 96 (27.6%). In those in whom it could be assessed, body mass index (BMI) ranged from 11.2-30.6 kg/m(2) and 141/303 (46.5%) had moderate/severe undernutrition (BMI<17 kg/m(2)). A sex-specific cut-off for mid-upper arm circumference predictive of BMI<17 kg/m(2) was associated with inpatient Day 3-28 mortality in males (AOR = 5.04, 95% CI: 1.50-16.86; p = 0.009; p = 0.032 for interaction by sex). The inability to stand for weight/height for BMI assessment was also associated with mortality (AOR = 5.59; 95% CI 2.25-13.89; p<0.001) as was severe compared to normal/mild anaemia (AOR = 9.67; 95% CI 2.48-37.76; p<0.001). No TB specific variables were associated with Day 3-28 mortality, nor was diabetes (HbA1c >= 6.5% or diabetes treatment). Similar effects were observed when the same multivariable model was applied to confirmed TB patients only and to the outcome of all post-day 3 inpatient mortality. Conclusion This research supports the use of mid-upper arm circumference for triaging acutely unwell patients and the design and testing of nutrition-based interventions to improve patient outcomes.