Analytical model for fast reliability evaluation of composite generation and transmission system based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation

This paper proposes an analytical reliability evaluation (RE) model for composite generation and transmission system (CGTS) based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The main idea is to partition the chronological system state sequence produced by sequential MCS into a set of mutually exclusive events based on the law of total probability. An analytical model is developed by extracting the component reliability parameters (CRPs) from system reliability index calculation formula of each mutually exclusive event. Once the proposed model is established, system reliability indices with variable CRPs can be obtained directly, rather than repeatedly performing the time-consuming sequential MCS process. In addition, sensitivity coefficients of system reliability indices with respect to CRPs can be obtained using the developed analytical model. A 4-unit generation system, the CGTS of IEEE-RTS system and a 91-bus power system are used for case study to validate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed analytical RE model.