Changing salmon: An analysis of body mass, abundance, survival, and productivity trends across 45 years in Puget Sound

Pacific salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp., Salmonidae) of the Puget Sound region of Washington State, USA, have experienced recent and longer-term (multidecadal) variability in abundance while supporting robust fisheries. As part of the post-season salmon management process, population-specific estimates of total adult abundance to Puget Sound (Strait of Juan de Fuca) for pink (O. gorbuscha), chum (O. keta), coho (O. kisutch), sockeye (O. nerka), and Chinook (O. tshawytscha) salmon and steelhead trout (O. mykiss) are calculated annually. We compiled annual estimates of body mass, abundance and survival of hatchery- and naturally produced salmon from 1970 to 2015 to compare spatial and temporal patterns across species. Average weights of adult salmon and steelhead returning to Puget Sound, with the exception of coho salmon, have decreased since the 1970s. Temporal trends in abundance, survival and productivity varied by species and origin (hatchery vs. naturally produced). Generally, abundance and survival rates of natural-origin species decreased whereas those of hatchery-produced species did not, which is in contrast with other studies' general conclusions of decreasing survival among Puget Sound salmonids. Species diversity has decreased in recent years, with salmonids that rely on a short freshwater rearing phase in the natural environment (hatchery-produced fish and naturally produced pink and chum) representing >90% of total returns in most years. This new information reveals patterns of body size, abundance, survival and productivity across species, life history and rearing type over the past 45 years and, in doing so, demonstrates the strength in multidecadal, multifactor time series to critically evaluate salmonid species.