Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 14, Issue 8, Pages -Publisher
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef
Keywords
Paris Agreement; water supply; drought; drought risk; desalination; 1.5 degrees C; 2.0 degrees C
Funding
- Australian Research Council Linkage Project [LP150100062]
- Melbourne Water
- Australian Research Council Future Fellowship [FT120100130]
- ARC DECRA [DE180100638]
- Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub - Australian government's National Environmental Science Program
- NCI facility in Australia
- CLEX
- Australian Bureau ofMeteorology
- Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine hydrological and climate model simulations to evaluate risks to the water supply under projected shifts in the climate at the Paris Agreement warming levels. Modelling the primary surface water sources for Melbourne, Australia, we project that the risk of severe water supply shortage to the climate-dependent portion of the system increases substantially as global warming increases from 1.5 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C. Risks are further exacerbated by increases in water demand but substantially ameliorated by supply augmentation from desalination. We demonstrate that reductions in precipitation, rising temperature and growth in water demand combine to substantially amplify the risk of severe water supply shortage under near-term global warming in the absence of a climate-independent supply. This risk amplification is not as apparent in assessments based on meteorological drought alone. With the diminishing opportunity of meeting the 1.5 degrees C Paris target, our study highlights the need to accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation efforts to reduce risks to climate dependent water supply systems.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available