Journal
ENTROPY
Volume 21, Issue 7, Pages -Publisher
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/e21070709
Keywords
intelligent transportation systems; LSTM; road congestion prediction; GPS trajectory; driving time
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41701444]
- Nature Science Foundation of Shenzhen University [2018071]
- Shenzhen Scientific Research and Development Funding Program [JCYJ20170412142144518, JCYJ20170818101704025]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Road traffic congestion has a large impact on travel. The accurate prediction of traffic congestion has become a hot topic in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Recently, a variety of traffic congestion prediction methods have been proposed. However, most approaches focus on floating car data, and the prediction accuracy is often unstable due to large fluctuations in floating speed. Targeting these challenges, we propose a method of traffic congestion prediction based on bus driving time (TCP-DT) using long short-term memory (LSTM) technology. Firstly, we collected a total of 66,228 bus driving records from 50 buses for 66 working days in Guangzhou, China. Secondly, the actual and standard bus driving times were calculated by processing the buses' GPS trajectories and bus station data. Congestion time is defined as the interval between actual and standard driving time. Thirdly, congestion time prediction based on LSTM (T-LSTM) was adopted to predict future bus congestion times. Finally, the congestion index and classification (CI-C) model was used to calculate the congestion indices and classify the level of congestion into five categories according to three classification methods. Our experimental results show that the T-LSTM model can effectively predict the congestion time of six road sections at different time periods, and the average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE over bar ) and root mean square error (RMSE over bar ) of prediction are 11.25% and 14.91 in the morning peak, and 12.3% and 14.57 in the evening peak, respectively. The TCP-DT method can effectively predict traffic congestion status and provide a driving route with the least congestion time for vehicles.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available