Journal
ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
Volume 89, Issue 4, Pages -Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1383
Keywords
Arctic invertebrates; phenology; spatial gradient; structural equation modeling; timing of breeding; trophic interactions
Categories
Funding
- Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation [2010-0061-015, 2011-0032-014, 0801.12.032731, 0801.13.041129]
- Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act [F11AP01040, F12AP00734, F13APO535]
- Nome: Alaska Department of Fish and Game [T-16]
- National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs [OPP-1023396]
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Region 7 Migratory Bird Management Division), University of Alaska Fairbanks, Murie Science and Learning Center Research Grants (National Park Service)
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Region 7 Migratory Bird Management Division)
- University of Missouri Columbia
- Ikpikpuk and Prudhoe Bay: Alaska Department of Fish and Game Partner Program
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Avian Influenza Surveillance grant
- U.S. Geological Survey Changing Arctic Ecosystem Initiative
- Wildlife Program of the USGS Ecosystem Mission Area
- Canning River: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge)
- Mackenzie Delta: Environment and Climate Change Canada
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada
- Cumulative Impacts Monitoring Program and Arctic Research Infrastructure Fund
- Manomet Inc.
- NSERC Canada
- Environment and Climate Change Canada Science Horizons program
- Northern Scientific Training Grant Program
- Trent University, National Science Foundation (U.S.) [DDIG-1110444]
- Faucett Family Foundation
- David and Lucile Packard Foundation
- American Museum of Natural History
- Ducks Unlimited Canada
- Environment and Climate Change Canada
- Polar Continental Shelf Program
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or phenological mismatches. Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon and what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at 10 sites spread across similar to 13 degrees latitude and similar to 84 degrees longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at (1) an individual-nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and (2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used structural equation modeling to test for causal relationships among (1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, (2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and (3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long-term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for Arctic-nesting birds.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available