Apparent Declining Prognostic Value of a Negative Stress Echocardiography Based on Regional Wall Motion Abnormalities in Patients With Normal Resting Left Ventricular Function Due to the Changing Referral Profile of the Population Under Study

Background: Cardiology guidelines identify the low-risk response during stress echocardiography as the absence of regional wall motion abnormalities. Methods: From 1983 to 2016, we enrolled 5817 patients (age 63 +/- 12 years; 2830 males) with suspected coronary artery disease, normal regional, and global left ventricular function at rest and during stress (exercise in 692, dipyridamole in 4291, and dobutamine in 834). Based on timing of enrollment, 4 groups were identified in chronological order of recruitment: years 1983 to 1989, group 1 (n=211); years 1990 to 1999, group 2 (n=1491); years 2000 to 2009, group 3 (n=3285); and years 2010 to 2016, group 4 (n=830). Results: There were 240 (4%) events (119 deaths and 121 infarctions) in the follow-up. At 1-year follow-up, the event rate was 0.5% (95% CI, 0.05-0.95), 1.5% (95% CI, -1.18 to 1.82), 1.9% (95% CI, 1.63-2.17), and 1.7% (95% CI, 1.01-2.39; chi(2), 9.0; P=0.03) in groups 1 to 4, respectively. At multivariable Cox analysis, independent predictors of future events were age (hazard ratio (HR), 1.05; 95% CI, 1.04-1.07; P<0.0001), male sex (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.20-2.04; P=0.001), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.34-2.37; P<0.0001), smoking habit (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05-1.85; P=0.02), and ongoing anti-ischemic therapy (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.15-1.97; P=0.003) Conclusions: Over the past 3 decades, we observed a progressive decline in the prognostic value of a negative test based on regional wall motion abnormalities, likely reflecting both an increase in risk in patients, as well as a potential decrease in test performance due to concomitant anti-ischemic therapy.