Journal
AEROSPACE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Volume 89, Issue -, Pages 445-459Publisher
ELSEVIER FRANCE-EDITIONS SCIENTIFIQUES MEDICALES ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2019.03.051
Keywords
Optimal control; Robust planning; Convective weather; Aircraft trajectory planning
Categories
Funding
- Spanish Government [TRA2014-58413-C2-2-R]
- R&D&I actions of Programa Estatal de Investigacion, Desarrollo e Innovacidn Orientada a los Retos de la Sociedad
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Convective weather, and thunderstorm development in particular, represents a major source of disruption, delays and safety hazards in the Air Traffic Management system. Thunderstorms are challenging to forecast and evolve on relatively rapid timescales; therefore, aircraft trajectory planning tools need to consider the uncertainty in the forecasted evolution of these convective phenomena. In this work, we use data from a satellite-based product, Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms, to estimate a model of the uncertain evolution of thunderstorms. We then introduce a methodology based on numerical optimal control to generate avoidance trajectories under uncertain convective weather evolution. We design a randomized procedure to initialize the optimal control problem, explore the different resulting local optima, and identify the best trajectory. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed methodology on a realistic test scenario, employing actual forecast data and an aircraft performance model. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.
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