Prognostic Potential of Circulating Tumor DNA Measurement in Postoperative Surveillance of Nonmetastatic Colorectal Cancer

ImportanceFor patients with resected, nonmetastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), the optimal surveillance protocol remains unclear. ObjectiveTo evaluate whether serial circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels detected disease recurrence earlier, compared with conventional postoperative surveillance, in patients with resected CRC. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis study included patients (n=58) with stage I, II, or III CRC who underwent radical surgical resection at 4 Swedish hospitals from February 2, 2007, to May 8, 2013. Eighteen patients received adjuvant chemotherapy at the discretion of their clinicians, who were blinded to the ctDNA results. Blood samples were collected at 1 month after the surgical procedure and every 3 to 6 months thereafter for ctDNA analysis. Patients were followed up until metachronous metastases were detected, or for a median of 49 months. Data analysis was performed from March 1, 2009, to June 23, 2018. Main Outcomes and MeasuresSensitivity and timing of ctDNA positivity were compared with those of conventional surveillance modalities (computed tomographic scans and serum carcinoembryonic antigen tests) for the detection of disease recurrence. ResultsThis study included 319 blood samples from 58 patients, with a median (range) age of 69 (47-83) years and 34 males (59%). The recurrence rate among patients with positive ctDNA levels was 77% (10 of 13 patients). Positive ctDNA preceded radiologic and clinical evidence of recurrence by a median of 3 months. Of the 45 patients with negative ctDNA throughout follow-up, none (0%; 95% CI, 0%-7.9%) experienced a relapse, with a median follow-up of 49 months. However, 3 (6%; 95% CI, 1.3%-17%) of the 48 patients without relapse had a positive ctDNA result, which subsequently fell to undetectable levels during follow-up. Conclusion and RelevanceAlthough these findings need to be validated in a larger, prospective trial, they suggest that ctDNA analysis could complement conventional surveillance strategies as a triage test to stratify patients with resected CRC on the basis of risk of disease recurrence. This study examines the prognostic utility and advantages of ctDNA analysis in all 3 stages of nonmetastatic colorectal cancer.