Evidence on the Impact of Winter Heating Policy on Air Pollution and Its Dynamic Changes in North China

Environmental pollution, especially air pollution, is an alarming issue for the public, which is extensively debated among academic scholars. During the winter heating season, smog has become somewhat a normal phenomenon to local residents' livelihood in northern China. Based on the daily air pollution data of regional cities in China from 2014 to 2016, and using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), the study finds that winter heating makes the air quality worse in the northern part of China. With the start of the winter heating, it increases the Air Quality Index (AQI) by 10.4%, particulate matter smaller than 10 m (PM10) by 9.77%, particulate matter smaller than 2.5 m (PM2.5) by 17.25%, CO by 9.84%, NO2 by 5.23%, and SO2 by 17.1%. Furthermore, dynamic changes demonstrate that air quality has gradually improved due to a series of heating policy changes implemented by the central government in recent years. Specifically, from 2014 to 2016, major indicators measuring the air pollution decrease dramatically, such as AQI by 92.36%, PM10 by 91.24%, PM2.5 by 84.06%, CO by 70.97%, NO2 by 52.76%, and SO2 by 17.15%.