Journal
ATMOSPHERE
Volume 10, Issue 5, Pages -Publisher
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10050229
Keywords
climate change; extreme temperatures; heat waves; cold spells; Iberian Peninsula; bias correction; WRF
Funding
- Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) (Portugal) [SFRH/BD/129154/2017]
- FEDER through the COMPETE Programme
- FCT-Science and Technology Portuguese Foundation [PTDC/AAG-MAA/3335/2014, POCI-01-0145-FEDER-016778]
- CESAM [UID/AMB/50017/2019]
- FCT/MEC
- FEDER within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement
- Compete 2020
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia [SFRH/BD/129154/2017, PTDC/AAG-MAA/3335/2014] Funding Source: FCT
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The comprehensive characterization of heat waves and extreme hot days is fundamental for policymakers due to its vast implications for human health. This study evaluates extreme temperature changes over the Iberian Peninsula for the present climate and future projections, considering extreme temperature indices, cold/heat waves, and a recovery factor, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The projected temperatures show an increase of over 6 degrees C. An increase in the number of summer days and tropical nights and a decrease in frost days is expected. The number of heat waves and their duration and intensity are expected to increase. The number of heat wave days are expected to increase, with much of the average summer season being under heat wave conditions. The recovery factor is expected to decrease. Cold spells are projected to decrease in terms of number, intensity, duration, and number of spell days, whereas the recovery factor is expected to increase. Heat wave analysis was combined with maximum temperature thresholds to isolate extreme heat waves. The results show an increase in extreme heat wave days, with regions experiencing over 10 heat wave days with maximum temperature surpassing 45 degrees C for the long-term future.
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