Journal
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW
Volume 125, Issue -, Pages 222-240Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2019.03.011
Keywords
Maritime supply chain; Maritime transport; Bayesian network; Fuzzy logic; FMEA; Maritime risk
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Funding
- China National Key Technologies Research & Development Program [2017YFC0804900, 2017YFC0804904]
- EU [612546, 730888, GOLF-777742]
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This paper aims to develop a novel model to assess the risk factors of maritime supply chains by incorporating a fuzzy belief rule approach with Bayesian networks. The new model, compared to traditional risk analysis methods, has the capability of improving result accuracy under a high uncertainty in risk data. A real case of a world leading container shipping company is investigated, and the research results reveal that among the most significant risk factors are transportation of dangerous goods, fluctuation of fuel price, fierce competition, unattractive markets, and change of exchange rates in sequence. Such findings will provide useful insights for accident prevention.
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