Community distress predicts youth gun violence

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate our institution's experience with pediatric firearm events. We sought to determine the relationship between a community's level of socioeconomic distress and the incidence of youth gun violence. Methods: We performed a retrospective review of children <18 years involved in firearm events. Using visual cluster analysis, we portrayed all firearm events and violent firearm events (assaults homicides). Distressed community indices (DCIs) were obtained from an interface that uses US Census Bureau data. Incident rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for firearm circumstances (i.e. assault, homicide, suicide) using a DCI. Significant IRRs were analyzed to discern which DCI metrics contributed most to gun violence. Results: There were 114 children involved in firearm events: 66 were county residents. The DCI of injury location significantly predicted total firearm events (IRR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), assaults (IRR 1.02,95% CI 1.01-1.05), and violent firearm events (IRR 1.03,95% 1.01-1.05). The proportion of adults without a high school diploma, poverty rate, median income ratio, and housing vacancy rate were highly predictive of gun violence (VIP > 1). Conclusion: Community distress significantly predicts pediatric firearm violence. Local interventions should target neighborhoods with high levels of distress to prevent further youth gun violence. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.