Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 46, Issue 7, Pages 3963-3972Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082362
Keywords
extreme rainfall; climate change; clustering; extreme value analysis; record precipitation
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Funding
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPBPA16H0003]
- French National Research Agency [ANR-17-MPGA-0016]
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) [ANR-17-MPGA-0016] Funding Source: Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR)
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The changing risk of extreme precipitation is difficult to project. Events are rare by definition, and return periods of heavy precipitation events are often calculated assuming a stationary climate. Furthermore, ensembles of climate model projections are not large enough to fully categorize the tails of the distribution. To address this, we cluster the contiguous United States into self-similar hydroclimates to estimate changes in the expected frequency of extremely rare events under scenarios of global mean temperature change. We find that, although there is some regional variation, record events are projected in general to become more intense, with 500-year events intensifying by 10-50% under 2 degrees C of warming and by 40-100% under 4 degrees C of warming. This analysis could provide information to inform regional prioritization of resources to improve the resilience of U.S. infrastructure.
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