Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 14, Issue 5, Pages -Publisher
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab195a
Keywords
flood insurance; decision-making mechanism; Bayesian network; flood risk mitigation
Funding
- US Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Gulf of Mexico Coastal Storm Program under NOAA [NA10OAR4170078]
- Texas Sea Grant
- Louisiana Sea Grant
- Florida Sea Grant
- Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium
- National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Gulf Research Program [2000008396]
- National Science Foundation [1520683]
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What is the decision-making mechanism people rely upon to mitigate flood risk? Applying Bayesian Network modeling to a comprehensive survey dataset for the US Gulf Coast, we find that the overall support for flood mitigation can be inferred from flood insurance purchase behavior (i.e. without insurance versus with insurance purchased mandatorily, voluntarily, or both). Therefore, we propose a theoretical decision-making mechanism composed of two dimensions including informed flood risk and sense of insecurity. The informed flood risk is the primary determinant on one's overall support for flood mitigation. Risk mitigation decisions are largely contingent on the level of risk that is effectively conveyed to individuals. Additionally, sense of insecurity plays a moderate role in determining individuals' overall support for flood mitigation. The sense of insecurity can move people toward overall support for mitigation, but the effect is not as large as the informed risk. Results of this study have fundamental policy implications. The flood risk informed by Federal Emergency Management Agency's flood maps not only provides the compulsory basis for flood insurance purchase but also determines individuals' overall support for flood mitigation. Flood map inaccuracy can immensely mislead individuals' overall risk mitigation decision. Meanwhile, this flood risk mitigation decision-making mechanism inferred from a survey data in the US Gulf Coast needs to be tested and validated elsewhere.
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