Role of Liver Stiffness Measurement in Predicting HCC Occurrence in Direct-Acting Antivirals Setting: A Real-Life Experience

Purpose The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the liver stiffness measurement and the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HCV cirrhotic patients undergoing new direct-acting antivirals. Methods From April 2015 to April 2017, all consecutive HCV cirrhotic patients treated by direct-acting antivirals were enrolled. A liver stiffness measurement was computed at baseline, and an ultrasound evaluation was provided for all patients at baseline and every 6 months until 1 year after the stopping of the antiviral therapy. The diagnosis of HCC was performed according to international guidelines by imaging technique workup. Results Two hundred and fifty-eight HCV patients with a diagnosis of cirrhosis were identified. The median liver stiffness was 25.5 kPa. Thirty-five patients developed HCC. Patients were divided into three groups, based on their liver stiffness: < 20 kPa (n = 72), between 20 and 30 kPa (n = 92) and > 30 kPa (n = 94). Compared to the < 20 kPa and 20-30 kPa groups, the > 30 kPa group showed a statistically significant increased risk of HCC (p = 0.019; HR 0.329; 95% CI 0.131-0.830). A ROC curve analysis to assess the overall predictive performance of liver stiffness measurement on the HCC risk was performed. The results allow us to identify a cutoff value of liver stiffness measurement equal to 27.8 kPa, which guarantees the highest sensitivity and specificity (respectively, 72% and 65%). Conclusions The data underline that the baseline liver stiffness measurement and ultrasound surveillance is a valuable tool for assessing the risk of HCC in cirrhotic patients undergoing the direct-acting antivirals treatment.