Experimental data-based reduced-order model for analysis and prediction of flame transition in gas turbine combustors

In lean premixed combustors, flame stabilisation is an important operational concern that can affect efficiency, robustness and pollutant formation. The focus of this paper is on flame lift-off and re-attachment to the nozzle of a swirl combustor. Using time-resolved experimental measurements, a data-driven approach known as cluster-based reduced-order modelling (CROM) is employed to (1) isolate key flow patterns and their sequence during the flame transitions, and (2) formulate a forecasting model to predict the flame instability. The flow patterns isolated by the CROM methodology confirm some of the experimental conclusions about the flame transition mechanism. In particular, CROM highlights the key role of the precessing vortex core (PVC) in the flame detachment process in an unsupervised manner. For the attachment process, strong flow recirculation far from the nozzle appears to drive the flame upstream, thus initiating re-attachment. Different data-types (velocity field, OH concentration) were processed by the modelling tool, and the predictive capabilities of these different models are also compared. It was found that the swirling velocity possesses the best predictive properties, which gives a supplemental argument for the role of the PVC in causing the flame transition. The model is tested against unseen data and successfully predicts the probability of flame transition (both detachment and attachment) when trained with swirling velocity with minimal user input. The model trained with OH-PLIF data was only successful at predicting the flame attachment, which implies that different physical mechanisms are present for different types of flame transition. Overall, these aspects show the great potential of data-driven methods, particularly probabilistic forecasting techniques, in analysing and predicting large-scale features in complex turbulent combustion problems.