Patterns of All-Cause Mortality in Papua New Guinea, 2011

Existing estimates of mortality for Papua New Guinea (PNG) have primarily been based on models using little empirical data, and without estimation of life expectancy at subnational level. We used data on deaths from the 2000 and 2011 censuses and indirect demographic methods to estimate under-5 mortality (5q0), adult mortality (45q15), and life expectancy by province and sex. A Socioeconomic Composite Index was constructed to assess the plausibility of life expectancy estimates. We generated 5q0 estimates (68 per 1000 live births for males and 58 for females), 45q15 (269 per 1000 for males and 237 for females), and life expectancy (62.0 years for males and 64.3 for females) in PNG in 2011. Provinces with low life expectancy had correspondingly low levels of development as measured by the Composite Index, and vice versa. These subnational estimates of mortality levels and patterns maybe useful at the provincial level to improve population health in PNG.