A gut microbiome signature for cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

The presence of cirrhosis in nonalcoholic-fatty-liver-disease (NAFLD) is the most important predictor of liver-related mortality. Limited data exist concerning the diagnostic accuracy of gut-microbiome-derived signatures for detecting NAFLD-cirrhosis. Here we report 16S gut-microbiome compositions of 203 uniquely well-characterized participants from a prospective twin and family cohort, including 98 probands encompassing the entire spectrum of NAFLD and 105 of their first-degree relatives, assessed by advanced magnetic-resonanceimaging. We show strong familial correlation of gut-microbiome profiles, driven by shared housing. We report a panel of 30 features, including 27 bacterial features with discriminatory ability to detect NAFLD-cirrhosis using a Random Forest classifier model. In a derivation cohort of probands, the model has a robust diagnostic accuracy (AUROC of 0.92) for detecting NAFLD-cirrhosis, confirmed in a validation cohort of relatives of proband with NAFLD-cirrhosis (AUROC of 0.87). This study provides evidence for a fecal-microbiomederived signature to detect NAFLD-cirrhosis.